Crowd Odds
Prediction markets put a live price on questions the news only argues about. We publish the crowd’s odds beside what our own desk tracks on the same question - where they line up, and where they don’t. The odds are the crowd’s view, never ours. The watching is ours.
These are market-implied odds from public prediction markets. The percentages reflect where real-money traders are placing bets: the crowd’s view, not ours, and we never publish a probability of our own. They shift constantly, they can be wrong, and a thin or disputed market can move on very little. We publish them for context and curiosity. This is not investment advice. Full disclaimer
The few questions with the most money on them get the full treatment: the scenario - what each outcome has touched in past episodes and what to watch between now and resolution - plus a short read of what this week's news says about it. The price is the crowd's. The map and the reading are ours. We never publish odds of our own.
$1M on the table · resolves 2026-09-16 · crowd price, not ours
The desk's registered branch
Bonds quit being quiet. The catch-all: the gauge leaves its declared quiet state, and the desk gets to ask which story it is.
$129K on the table · resolves 2026-12-31 · crowd price, not ours
$88K on the table · resolves 2026-10-01 · crowd price, not ours
$80K on the table · resolves 2027-01-01 · crowd price, not ours
$808K on the table · resolves 2027-01-01 · crowd price, not ours
$801K on the table · resolves 2027-01-01 · crowd price, not ours
$797K on the table · resolves 2028-11-07 · crowd price, not ours
The odds on this page are the crowd's, not ours. Below is every topic's prices checked against what actually happened, 30 days out from each market's close.
Politics
2,680 marketsWhen the crowd priced it at 1.9%, it happened 1.5% of the time (1811)
When the crowd priced it at 14.6%, it happened 20.2% of the time (198)
When the crowd priced it at 24.6%, it happened 32.3% of the time (96)
When the crowd priced it at 34.1%, it happened 36.7% of the time (79)
When the crowd priced it at 44.1%, it happened 39% of the time (59)
When the crowd priced it at 54.9%, it happened 55.9% of the time (59)
When the crowd priced it at 65.4%, it happened 78% of the time (50)
When the crowd priced it at 75.4%, it happened 86.8% of the time (68)
When the crowd priced it at 85.5%, it happened 90%+ of the time (71)
When the crowd priced it at 95.8%, it happened 90%+ of the time (189)
Sports
2,137 marketsWhen the crowd priced it at 1.5%, it happened 0.8% of the time (1455)
When the crowd priced it at 14.5%, it happened 13.9% of the time (195)
When the crowd priced it at 24.3%, it happened 25.3% of the time (162)
When the crowd priced it at 34.3%, it happened 42.6% of the time (61)
When the crowd priced it at 45%, it happened 42.6% of the time (54)
When the crowd priced it at 54.9%, it happened 60.9% of the time (46)
When the crowd priced it at 65.1%, it happened 65.3% of the time (49)
When the crowd priced it at 74.7%, it happened 70.5% of the time (44)
When the crowd priced it at 84.2%, it happened 90%+ of the time (22)
When the crowd priced it at 95.8%, it happened 90%+ of the time (49)
Economy
389 marketsWhen the crowd priced it at 2%, it happened 1.1% of the time (275)
When the crowd priced it at 14.6%, it happened 20.9% of the time (43)
When the crowd priced it at 25%, it happened 26.7% of the time (15)
When the crowd priced it at 34.4%, it happened 14.3% of the time (7)
When the crowd priced it at 47%, it happened 90%+ of the time (1)
When the crowd priced it at 56.4%, it happened 71.4% of the time (7)
When the crowd priced it at 64.2%, it happened 80% of the time (10)
When the crowd priced it at 74.4%, it happened 75% of the time (4)
When the crowd priced it at 84.4%, it happened 88.9% of the time (9)
When the crowd priced it at 95.9%, it happened 90%+ of the time (18)
Crypto
264 marketsWhen the crowd priced it at 2.6%, it happened 1.3% of the time (153)
When the crowd priced it at 14%, it happened 19.4% of the time (31)
When the crowd priced it at 24%, it happened 33.3% of the time (18)
When the crowd priced it at 32.9%, it happened 60% of the time (10)
When the crowd priced it at 45.7%, it happened 40% of the time (5)
When the crowd priced it at 55.6%, it happened 70% of the time (10)
When the crowd priced it at 66.2%, it happened 80% of the time (5)
When the crowd priced it at 76%, it happened 88.9% of the time (9)
When the crowd priced it at 85.1%, it happened 83.3% of the time (12)
When the crowd priced it at 96%, it happened 90%+ of the time (11)
Tech
218 marketsWhen the crowd priced it at 2.3%, it happened 1.4% of the time (141)
When the crowd priced it at 14.5%, it happened 30.8% of the time (13)
When the crowd priced it at 25.1%, it happened 23.1% of the time (13)
When the crowd priced it at 37.1%, it happened 20% of the time (5)
When the crowd priced it at 46.5%, it happened 90%+ of the time (1)
When the crowd priced it at 56.4%, it happened 75% of the time (8)
When the crowd priced it at 66.1%, it happened 75% of the time (8)
When the crowd priced it at 78.8%, it happened 50% of the time (2)
When the crowd priced it at 84.9%, it happened 90%+ of the time (12)
When the crowd priced it at 96%, it happened 90%+ of the time (15)
Scored means the market had a real order book 30 or more days before it closed. Of 26,670 markets checked, 13,325 were scored and 6,144 had a clean fixed-horizon checkpoint before close (most of the rest did not have enough price history before closing). Markets checked mid-life run more overconfident (slopes below 1); held out for a clean horizon comparison.
Odds are market prices, not our forecasts.